| Title | Forecasting the carbon emissions in Hubei Province under the background of carbon neutrality: a novel STIRPAT extended model with ridge regression and scenario analysis |
|---|---|
| ID_Doc | 13003 |
| Authors | Rao, CJ; Huang, QF; Chen, L; Goh, M; Hu, Z |
| Title | Forecasting the carbon emissions in Hubei Province under the background of carbon neutrality: a novel STIRPAT extended model with ridge regression and scenario analysis |
| Year | 2023 |
| Published | Environmental Science And Pollution Research, 30.0, 20 |
| Abstract | The impact of global greenhouse gas emissions is increasingly serious, and the development of green low-carbon circular economy has become an inevitable trend for the development of all countries in the world. To achieve emission peak and carbon neutrality is the primary goal of energy conservation and emission reduction. As the core province in central China, Hubei Province is under prominent pressure of carbon emission reduction. In this paper, the future development trend of carbon emissions is analyzed, and the emission peak value and carbon peak time in Hubei Province is predicted. Firstly, the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) model is proposed to determine the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in Hubei Province. Secondly, based on the main influencing factors identified, a novel STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) extended model with ridge regression is established to predict carbon emissions. Thirdly, the scenario analysis method is used to set the variables of the STIRPAT extended model and to predict the emission peak value and carbon peak time in Hubei Province. The results show that Hubei Province's carbon emissions peaked first in 2025, with a peak value of 361.81 million tons. Finally, according to the prediction results, the corresponding suggestions on carbon emission reduction are provided in three aspects of industrial structure, energy structure, and urbanization, so as to help government establish a green, low-carbon, and circular development economic system and achieve the industry's cleaner production and sustainable development of society. |
Similar Articles
| ID | Score | Article |
|---|---|---|
33178
|
Jian, KR; Shi, RY; Zhang, YX; Liao, ZG; Tsai, WH Research on Carbon Emission Characteristics and Differentiated Carbon Reduction Pathways in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on the STIRPAT Model(2023)Sustainability, 15.0, 21 | |
| 32936
|
Wang, S; Wang, YX; Zhou, CX; Wang, XL Projections in Various Scenarios and the Impact of Economy, Population, and Technology for Regional Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality in China(2022)International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 19.0, 19 | |
| 32595
|
Zeng, S; Yi, CD A study of the potential for peak carbon dioxide emissions in metropolitan areas: the case of China(2023)Environmental Monitoring And Assessment, 195, 6 | |
| 29347
|
Wang, WY; Chen, YR; Huang, YM Simulation of emission reduction path under the path of differentiated energy transformation in China's industrial cities: a case study of Shanghai(2024)Environmental Science And Pollution Research, 31.0, 11 | |
| 31088
|
Zhang, L; Chen, JY; Dinis, F; Wei, S; Cai, CZ Decoupling Effect, Driving Factors and Prediction Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction and Product Supply Guarantee in China(2022)Sustainability, 14, 24 |