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Title	Modelling assessment of resource competition for renewable basic chemicals and the effect of recycling
ID_Doc	13419
Authors	Musonda, F; Millinger, M; Thrän, D
Title	Modelling assessment of resource competition for renewable basic chemicals and the effect of recycling
Year	2024
Published	Global Change Biology Bioenergy, 16, 4
Abstract	This work assesses pathways towards a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions chemical industry sector in Germany until 2050, focusing on the ammonia, methanol, ethylene and adipic acid subsectors and the effect of the recycling of C embedded in chemical end products on the GHG abatement cost and primary resource demand. This was done using a bottom-up mathematical optimization model, including the energy sectors and the chemicals sector, with electricity and biobased options considered. Results show that net-zero GHG emissions for the considered chemicals in 2050 are attainable at a marginal cost of 640-900 /tCO(2)-eq, even with 26%-36% of demand being satisfied by fossil production routes. This is possible because renewable organic chemicals can act as carbon sinks if, at their end of life, C is permanently stored via landfilling or passed on to the next value chain via recycling. Nonetheless, considering the cost implications, the practical deployment of renewable chemicals is a challenge. The considered renewable chemicals cost 1.3-8 times more than their fossil counterparts, resulting in a marginal CO2 price of 480 /tCO(2)-eq when all primary resources (energy crops, forest residues and renewable electricity) are considered, or 810 /tCO(2)-eq when the availability of arable land is restricted. In the transition to net-zero emissions for the chemicals under study, a circular economy is important not only for reducing demand for primary resources as is typically the case but also reduces GHG abatement costs by 13%-24% through carbon capture and utilization effects.
PDF	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/gcbb.13133

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