| Title | Prospects for a saturation of humanity's resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035 |
|---|---|
| ID_Doc | 24834 |
| Authors | Wiedenhofer, D; Fishman, T; Plank, B; Miatto, A; Lauk, C; Haas, W; Haberl, H; Krausmann, F |
| Title | Prospects for a saturation of humanity's resource use? An analysis of material stocks and flows in nine world regions from 1900 to 2035 |
| Year | 2021 |
| Published | |
| Abstract | Material stocks in infrastructure, buildings and machinery shape current and future resource use and emissions. Analyses of specific countries and selected materials suggest that material stocks might saturate, which would be important for a more sustainable social metabolism. However, it is unclear to what extent the evidence holds for a wider range of stocks and flows, as well as for world regions or globally. We present an inflow-driven dynamic stock-flow model for 14 bulk materials, end-of-life outflows, recycling, and waste flows for nine world regions from 1900 to 2015, extended with trend scenarios until 2035. Material stocks are growing in all regions and show little signs of saturation yet. In 2015, China used half of global stockbuilding materials, overtook everyone in stock size around 2012 and grows its stock at similar to 8%/year. The Industrialized regions, including the Former Soviet Union, are slowly expanding their high stock levels at similar to 1%/year. Stocks in all other regions, inhabited by 60% of the world population, grow at similar to 3-5%/year. Inequalities in per capita stocks between regions are large. Trend scenarios suggest potential absolute or per capita stock saturations in some of the industrialized regions, while all other regions are expected to continue high stock growth. Accumulated stocks drive future end-of-life materials and substantial maintenance and replacement requirements. Growing material stocks hamper a potential stabilization or reduction of resource use. Low stock levels in most world regions suggest a crucial window of opportunity for avoiding resource-intensive stock development. In the industrialized regions and especially China, stabilising and reducing resource use requires halting net stock expansion and transforming existing stocks. More materials- and energy-efficient and long-lived stocks which deliver high quality services, and improved reuse, repair and recycling of increasing end-of-life materials to close loops and actually replace virgin resources, are crucial for a more sustainable social metabolism. |
| https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102410 |
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