| Title |
Spatio-temporal evolution and scenario analysis of end-recycling governance in China: based on GM-SVR-BP combined forecasting model |
| ID_Doc |
25468 |
| Authors |
Li, C; Zhang, GL; Wang, LP |
| Title |
Spatio-temporal evolution and scenario analysis of end-recycling governance in China: based on GM-SVR-BP combined forecasting model |
| Year |
2024 |
| Published |
Energy Sources Part A-Recovery Utilization And Environmental Effects, 46, 1 |
| Abstract |
End-recycling governance is the core link for achieving high-quality development of circular economy. This study uses data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 as research samples, constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system, and analyzes the achievements and progress of end-recycling governance in China over the years. Based on scenario analysis, a GM-SVR-BP combined model is further used to explore the development trends of end-recycling governance performance in 30 provinces in China from 2022 to 2030. Research finding: (1) The end-recycling governance performance of Chinese provinces presents a dynamic upward trend, but overall, it is low. (2) The barycenter of end-recycling governance in China migrated to the southeast, and the transfer speed was stable, showing a northeast-southwest pattern. There are pronounced differences among different regions. (3) There are apparent spatial autocorrelation characteristics in China's end-recycling governance. The overall spatial agglomeration degree showed a weakening trend during the observation period. (4) The development trend of end-recycling governance performance in various regions in China during 2022-2030 follows the differentiation characteristics of the observation period in this study. Among them, technological breakthrough is one of the effective ways to improve the performance of end-recycling governance. The effect of the improvement of emotional level on the performance of end-recycling governance showed apparent regional heterogeneity. This study provides a clear and reliable decision-making basis for promoting the improvement of regional end-recycling governance performance and system construction, and has certain reference value for promoting national and regional resource conservation and environmental protection. |
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