| Title | Modeling sustainable adaptation strategies toward a climate-smart agriculture in a Mediterranean watershed under projected climate change scenarios |
|---|---|
| ID_Doc | 67595 |
| Authors | Brouziyne, Y; Abouabdillah, A; Hirich, A; Bouabid, R; Zaaboul, R; Benaabidate, L |
| Title | Modeling sustainable adaptation strategies toward a climate-smart agriculture in a Mediterranean watershed under projected climate change scenarios |
| Year | 2018 |
| Published | |
| Abstract | Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region are predicting a significant rainfall decrease and an increase of temperatures. The consequences of these changes on food security and natural resources in this region might be very dramatic. Anticipating climate change impacts by improving agricultural systems efficiency is a critical need. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of water resources and performance of two major rainfed crops (Winter wheat & Sunflower) to climate change impact in R'dom watershed. The study aimed also, to evaluate some adaptation strategies to improve crops water productivities while preserving hydrologic resources. The study site is a typical Mediterranean agro-silvo-pastoral watershed in North-western Morocco, where water resources are facing an increasing demand. Both hydrologic and plants growth modules of Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model (SWAT) have been calibrated and validated over the period 2004 to 2009. SWAT model and downscaled Global Circulation Model CNRM CM5 were used to simulate water yield and crops water productivities in 2031-2050 period under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The RCM data revealed that the study area will experience important precipitation drop and mean temperature increase in the period 2031 to 2050. About 26.4% (2.89) decrease of basin water yield and up to 44.7% (9.03) drop down of crops water productivities were consequently predicted. After simulation of 5 combinations of no tillage and two early sowing dates' strategies, TOPSIS technique was used to prioritize strategies according to different management policies. Both no tillage and the 10 days early sowing strategies have stood out as two best adaptation strategies among the management policies evaluated as compared to business as usual. |
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