| Title | Dual carbon goals and the impact on future agricultural development in China: a general equilibrium analysis |
|---|---|
| ID_Doc | 68971 |
| Authors | Wei, W; Cui, Q; Sheng, Y |
| Title | Dual carbon goals and the impact on future agricultural development in China: a general equilibrium analysis |
| Year | 2022 |
| Published | China Agricultural Economic Review, 14, 4 |
| Abstract | Purpose This paper aims to explore the future path of agricultural development in China toward 2060 under the dual carbon goals, so as to inform better policy choices for facilitating agricultural and rural transformation toward the goal of maintaining food security, sustainable income growth and low carbon emission. Design/methodology/approach This study employs a single-country, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM model and develops eight illustrative scenarios to simulate the impacts of attaining dual carbon goals on agricultural development in China. Additional two scenarios have also been designed to inform better policy making with the aim to offset the negative impact of the decarbonization schemes through facilitating agricultural technology progress. Findings Dual carbon goals are projected to impose substantial negative impact on agricultural productions and consumptions in China in the coming four decades. Under the assumption of business as usual, agricultural production will reduce by 0.49-8.94% along with the attainment of carbon neutrality goal by 2060, with the production of cereals and high-value being more severely damaged. To mitigate the adverse impact of the decarbonization schemes, it is believed that fastening technology progress in agriculture is one of the most efficient ways for maintaining domestic food security without harming the dual carbon goals. In particular, if agricultural productivity (particularly, for cereals and high-value products) can be increased by another 1% per year, the production losses caused by carbon emission mitigation will be fully offset. This implies that promoting technology progress is still the best way to facilitate agricultural development and rural transformation in future China. Originality/value The paper contributes to the literature in better informing the impact of dual carbon goals on China's agriculture and the effectiveness of technology progress in agriculture on buffering the adverse impact of the decarbonization schemes and promoting agricultural development. |
Similar Articles
| ID | Score | Article |
|---|---|---|
31088
|
Zhang, L; Chen, JY; Dinis, F; Wei, S; Cai, CZ Decoupling Effect, Driving Factors and Prediction Analysis of Agricultural Carbon Emission Reduction and Product Supply Guarantee in China(2022)Sustainability, 14, 24 | |
| 30843
|
Zhang, L; Cai, CZ Innovative measurement, trade-off-synergy relationship and influencing factors for agricultural net carbon emissions and effective supply of agricultural products in China(2024)Heliyon, 10, 3 | |
| 69435
|
Ansari, MA; Ravisankar, N; Shamim, M; Rani, M; Prusty, AK; Singh, R; Raghavendra, KJ; Joshi, H; Kumar, S; Panwar, AS; Kumar, M Accounting of carbon sequestration and tradeoff under various climatic scenarios in alternative agricultural system: a comprehensive framework toward carbon neutrality(2024) | |
| 32936
|
Wang, S; Wang, YX; Zhou, CX; Wang, XL Projections in Various Scenarios and the Impact of Economy, Population, and Technology for Regional Emission Peak and Carbon Neutrality in China(2022)International Journal Of Environmental Research And Public Health, 19.0, 19 | |
| 30474
|
Li, H Digital inclusive finance, agricultural green technology innovation and agricultural carbon emissions: Impact mechanism and empirical test(2023)Plos One, 18, 10 | |
| 77100
|
Li, J; Zheng, ZC; Xu, Y; Hang, S; Gong, HR Optimization of coupling crop and livestock production system's eco-efficiency in northern China based on a life cycle assessment and data envelopment analysis method(2024) | |
| 32987
|
Liu, L; Wang, X; Wang, ZG Recent progress and emerging strategies for carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China(2023)Greenhouse Gases-Science And Technology, 13.0, 5 | |
| 69444
|
Ye, DP; Zhen, SS; Wang, W; Liu, YQ Spatial double dividend from China's main grain-producing areas policy: total factor productivity and the net carbon effect(2023)Humanities & Social Sciences Communications, 10.0, 1 | |
| 31007
|
Zhu, JH; Dou, ZX; Yan, X; Yu, LZ; Lu, Y Exploring the influencing factors of carbon neutralization in Chinese manufacturing enterprises(2023)Environmental Science And Pollution Research, 30, 2 | |
| 30100
|
Deng, Y; Zhang, S Green Finance, Green Technology Innovation And Agricultural Carbon Emissions In China(2024)Applied Ecology And Environmental Research, 22, 2 |