| Authors |
Bandari, R; Moallemi, EA; Szetey, K; Flanagan-Smith, C; Hadjikakou, M; Marcos-Martinez, R; Kharrazi, A; Trogrlic, RS; Bryan, BA |
| Abstract |
Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is challenging given the complex interactions between different SDGs and their spillover effects. We developed a system dynamics model-the Local Environmental and Socio-Economic Model (LESEM)-to analyze and quantify context-based SDG interactions at the local scale using a participatory model co-design process with local stakeholders. The LESEM was developed for the Goulburn-Murray Irrigation District in Victoria, Australia, to assist policymakers in analyzing local issues with a more integrated and holistic approach to sustainable development at the local scale. The process of participatory systems dynamics modeling facilitates integrated and strategic decision-making and can help local policymakers identify and quantify potential trade-offs and synergies that benefit multiple SDGs, which eventually leads local communities toward sustainability. We present an illustrative application of the model that quantifies SDG interactions across four high-priority SDGs, namely clean water and sanitation (SDG 6), zero hunger (SDG 2), economic growth (SDG 8), and life on land (SDG 15). We illustrate the use of the model in assessing key SDG indicator trajectories under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario from 2010 to 2050. Under the BAU, agri-food production increased despite a decline in water resource availability, with gains driven by intensification and increased agricultural productivity. This boosted local prosperity and reduced the amount of agricultural land required to meet future agri-food demand, thereby reducing pressures on terrestrial ecosystems and creating the space for ecological restoration and carbon storage in soils and biomass. However, agricultural intensification impacted water quality through increases in algal blooms and river salinity. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals represent a comprehensive and ambitious plan to improve society, boost the economy, and protect the environment. However, it's challenging to achieve these goals because they interact with and impact one another in complex ways. To better understand these interactions, we apply a system dynamics model to analyze how different goals influence each other at a local level by involving the input of stakeholders. In this study, we focused on four critical goals: zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, economic growth, and life on land. We explored projections from 2010 to 2050 under business-as-usual trends. The results revealed that, even if water becomes scarcer, food production can still go up if we farm smarter and more efficiently. This is good for the local economy and means that less land is needed for farming, which helps the environment. It also creates room for nature to bounce back and for the soil and plants to store more carbon. However, agricultural intensification can adversely affect water quality. Our model supports decision-makers in balancing multiple goals, identifying potential trade-offs, and synergies that benefit the sustainable development of local communities. We used a participatory approach to co-design a systems model with stakeholders for analyzing local sustainabilityThe model quantifies the interactions among SDG 2, SDG 6, SDG 8, and SDG 15 and we applied it under a Business-As-Usual (BAU) futureUnder the BAU, agri-food production increased despite less water due to intensification, but there were environmental spillover effects |
