| Abstract |
The efficient and optimal management of water resources is of great importance due to the strong dependence of human life on water. Also, the availability and utilization of the existing water resources in regions with water shortages, such as the Middle East, impose high social, economic, and environmental costs. Therefore, water resource management policies should incorporate all aspects of supply, allocation, control, and monitoring of resources. This study provides a dynamic simulation model for water resource management in the Yazd province of Iran to examine the effect of different policies on the other variables and choose the most suitable policies over time. For this purpose, we used a system dynamics approach to propose an integrated water resources management model, considering a comprehensive view of different aspects. The proposed model included over 230 influential variables in water resources, along with economic, demographic, technological, agricultural, industrial, public policy-making, water demand-supply, and virtual water volume subsystems. After we validate the model, we define three scenarios (optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic) and four policy packages (i.e., business as usual, focusing on economic development, focusing on sustainable development based on ecological balance, and focusing on water conservation) in the time horizons of 10, 20, and 50 years. The simulation results indicated that we require a reform in the Yazd economic development strategies through policies such as changing the cropping pattern and reducing water-consuming industries. Moreover, water supply enhancement by raising the inter-basin transfer of water alone cannot be an effective solution for reducing the water shortage in Yazd province and may even worsen the water shortage in the long run. We conclude that the "Focus on Water Conservation" policy is the best solution to reduce water shortage. The results of the baseline scenario show that adopting the FWC policy changes the increasing trend of water shortage in the province and decreases them from more than 53 billion m(3) in the "Business as Usual" policy to less than 20 billion m(3) in the year 2040. As the FWC would decrease more than 10 billion m(3) of the virtual water level imbalance compared to BAU policy and make more investments in water efficiency plans, it preserves the current resources of water in the long run. |
