| Abstract |
This study modifies a dynamic computable general equilibrium GTAP model by incorporating circular economy mechanisms for recycled green building materials (GBMs), and collecting data to estimate and build entire supply chain and sales chain for recycled GBMs. The goal is to forecast the possible development of the GBM sectors of China, the EU28, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan, the USA, and the rest of the world to 2030, and their environmental impacts. Results reveal that the average output quantity growth of GBMs will increase significantly and continuously to 2030 (Japan is 12.64%, followed by Malaysia (11.75%), EU28 (11.13%), Korea (10.97%), USA (9.85%), China (7.12%), Taiwan (6.48%), and India (5.88%)). The development of the RGBM sector will improve environment by saving water (and 15.30 M3), saving energy (13,428,333 Terajoules (TJ)) and reducing greenhouse gas emissions (265.87 million tons CO2eq) in 2030, helping to achieve the targets in the Paris Agreement and sustainable development goals, while mitigating the negative impacts of increasing greenhouse gases of increasing output value of GBM's supply chain on climate change. The models and results in this study provide guidelines and references for decision-makers in the GBM industry and the government who are responsible for making sustainability development and climate change policy. |