| Abstract |
As the urgency to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050intensifies,industries face an imperative to reimagine their role in the fightagainst climate change. One promising avenue arises from the realizationthat industrial emissions, often deemed pollutants, can be the buildingblocks of a circular economy strategy. By directly utilizing thesecarbon emissions as raw materials, we can produce net-zero or low-carbonfuels, carbonates, polymers, and chemicals. At the heart of this paradigmshift lies the production of carbon-neutral methanol from industrialflue gas a technically viable approach that has gained significantmomentum in recent years. The conditions under which such a circulareconomy model for producing renewable methanol becomes commerciallysustainable based on realistic constraints, however, are not sufficientlyexplored in the existing literature. This paper fills this gap byinvestigating if and when net-zero methanol production from industrialflue gas will be a sustainable long-term strategy. Using detailedtechnoeconomic modeling of integrated hydrogen and methanol productionecosystems for two production capacities, I will evaluate 32 practicalproduction scenarios using realistic regulatory, economic, and marketconditions. Even though renewable methanol from industrial emissionscan be a viable technical solution to address climate change and globalwarming, I will show why this strategy will be commercially feasibleonly under favorable economic, regulatory, and market conditions.Furthermore, I will demonstrate how the market price of methanol andthe cost of carbon-free electricity critically influence the commercialfeasibility of this approach. When these two parameters are unfavorable,I will show why other factors, namely, carbon credits and byproduct(oxygen) sales, will not be sufficient to create an economically sustainablecircular economy of renewable methanol from industrial emissions.Finally, I will provide arguments on why one has to think throughstakeholder cooperation and public-private partnerships tomitigate various project risks. Despite the importance of this topic,it is not sufficiently covered in the available scientific literature.To advance policy and regulatory frameworks in this area, I stronglybelieve that further research and development is needed. I will alsoshare perspectives on regulatory derisking mechanisms, which can helpalign regulations with private investors' preferences. Withthe analyses and arguments showcased in this paper, I will firmlyassert that without favorable conditions, strong partnerships, andstakeholder cooperation, the production of renewable net-zero methanolfrom industrial emissions risks becoming a dead-end strategy. |