| Abstract |
Germany's greenhouse gas emissions have declined by 35% since 1990, and the national policy ambition is to become largely carbon-neutral by 2050. A change of the industrial landscape and a partial transformation of energy supply have contributed to reductions so far, but for deep reductions, a deep transformation of the country's industrial metabolism is needed. While energy efficiency is well established, the same cannot be said for material efficiency, which includes product light-weighting, lifetime extension, more intense use, and value retention strategies like higher recycling rates, remanufacturing, and reuse. Sector-specific research showed substantial energy and emissions savings potentials of material efficiency, but the overall material efficiency potential for most world economies, including Germany, is unknown. We applied an open-source and modular dynamic material flow analysis model of the transformation of passenger vehicles, residential buildings, and commercial and service buildings in Germany (together ca. 50% of national greenhouse gases) to a material-efficient system, covering the time span 2016-2060. The potential impact of the above-mentioned material efficiency strategies was studied for the climate-relevant materials concrete, steel, timber, aluminum, and plastics. Once the potentials of energy-efficient products, electrification of end-use sectors, and energy system transformation are seized, supply and demand side material efficiency and sufficiency can reduce remaining 2050 emissions by an additional 19-34 % (passenger vehicles), 27-31% (residential buildings), and 14-19% (non-residential buildings). The 2016-2050 cumulative savings can be up to 750 Mt (million metric tons) CO2-eq. Material efficiency can be a key contributor to deep emissions cuts like a 95% target. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at . |