| Title |
Circular futures: What Will They Look Like? |
| ID_Doc |
23215 |
| Authors |
Bauwens, T; Hekkert, M; Kirchherr, J |
| Title |
Circular futures: What Will They Look Like? |
| Year |
2020 |
| Published |
|
| DOI |
10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106703 |
| Abstract |
The circular economy is argued to hold great promise for achieving sustainability. Yet, there is a dearth of research about what a circular future may look like. To address this gap, this paper proposes different plausible scenarios for a circular future, using a 2 x 2 scenario matrix method developed through a thought experiment and a focus group. Key drivers of change in this matrix are the nature of technologies deployed - high-tech or low-tech innovations - and the configuration of the governance regime - centralized or decentralized. From this, our paper builds four scenario narratives for the future of a circular economy: "planned circularity", "bottom-up sufficiency", "circular modernism", and "peer-to-peer circularity". It delineates the core characteristics and the upsides and downsides of each scenario. It shows that a circular economy can be organized in very contrasting ways. By generating insights about alternative circular futures, these scenarios may provide a clearer directionality to policy-makers and businesses, helping them both anticipate and understand the consequences of a paradigm shift towards a circular economy and shape policies and strategies, especially in the context of socalled mission-oriented innovation policies. They may also provide a sound basis for quantitatively modelling the impacts of a circular economy. |
| Author Keywords |
Foresight; Sustainability transitions; Scenario planning; Circular business models; Environmental governance; Circular innovations |
| Index Keywords |
Index Keywords |
| Document Type |
Other |
| Open Access |
Open Access |
| Source |
Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED); Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) |
| EID |
WOS:000539110100004 |
| WoS Category |
Ecology; Economics; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies |
| Research Area |
Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Business & Economics |
| PDF |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106703
|