| Abstract |
Multi-scenario simulation and prediction of land use can provide guidance for the optimization of land use patterns. Combining the GMOP model with the PLUS model can better evaluate the influence of different land use strategies on the comprehensive benefits of land use and improve the scientificity of the simulation results. This study takes Haikou City as the research area. As the political, economic, and cultural center of Hainan Province, it is the highest urbanization area in Hainan Province and also the vane of the urban development of Hainan Province. Its development experience and model play an important leading role in the surrounding cities. The land use data of 2010, 2015, and 2020 were selected, and the spatiotemporal pattern of land use under the 2035 Business As Usual scenario (BAU), Economic Development scenario (ED), and Economic and Ecological Balanced Development scenario (EEB) was simulated based on the GMOP-PLUS model. The results show that: (1) The prediction results generally show the trend of the decrease in cultivated land and forest land and the increase in construction land, among which the expansion capacity of construction land is the strongest, and the forest land is more occupied, but the increase and decrease in land use types are different under different scenarios. (2) The three simulation scenarios all show the trend of economic benefit improvement and ecological benefit decline, which indicates that the primary objective of Haikou City's future development remains focused on economic construction, with the potential compromise of ecological functions to accommodate urban expansion. (3) The comprehensive benefits of the region in the EEB scenario are significantly higher than those in the BAU and ED scenarios. The optimized land use structure is more balanced, the scale of urban expansion is limited, and the loss of important ecological land is reduced to a minimum, which is more in line with the current concept of sustainable development. The study can serve as a reference for the coordinated development of urban planning, land use management, and ecological environment in Haikou. |