| Title |
Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD |
| ID_Doc |
68548 |
| Authors |
Strassburg, BBN; Latawiec, AE; Creed, A; Nguyen, N; Sunnenberg, G; Miles, L; Lovett, A; Joppa, L; Ashton, R; Scharlemann, JPW; Cronenberger, F; Iribarrem, A |
| Title |
Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD |
| Year |
2014 |
| Published |
Sustainability Science, 9, 2 |
| DOI |
10.1007/s11625-013-0209-5 |
| Abstract |
There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of "Economic Pressure on Land" (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R (2) = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R (2) = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a "business as usual" and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, "cross-biome leakage" would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage. |
| Author Keywords |
Land-cover change; Modelling; Deforestation; REDD; Climate change; Agriculture expansion |
| Index Keywords |
Index Keywords |
| Document Type |
Other |
| Open Access |
Open Access |
| Source |
Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED) |
| EID |
WOS:000333525400003 |
| WoS Category |
Green & Sustainable Science & Technology; Environmental Sciences |
| Research Area |
Science & Technology - Other Topics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| PDF |
https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11625-013-0209-5.pdf
|