| Title | Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China |
|---|---|
| ID_Doc | 76159 |
| Authors | Ma, L; Bai, ZH; Ma, WQ; Guo, MC; Jiang, RF; Liu, JG; Oenema, O; Velthof, GL; Whitmore, AP; Crawford, J; Dobermann, A; Schwoob, M; Zhang, FS |
| Title | Exploring Future Food Provision Scenarios for China |
| Year | 2019 |
| Published | Environmental Science & Technology, 53, 3 |
| Abstract | Developing sustainable food systems is essential, especially for emerging economies, where food systems are changing rapidly and affect the environment and natural resources. We explored possible future pathways for a sustainable food system in China, using multiple environmental indicators linked to eight of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Forecasts for 2030 in a business as usual scenario (BAU) indicate increases in animal food consumption as well as increased shortages of the land available and the water needed to produce the required food in China. Associated greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen and phosphorus losses could become 10-42% of global emissions in 2010. We developed three main pathways besides BAU [produce more and better food (PMB), consume and waste less food (CWL), and import. more food (IMF)]. and analyzed their impacts and contributions to achieving one or more of the eight SDGs. Under these scenarios, the demand for land and water and the emissions of GHG and nutrients may decrease by 7-55% compared to BAU, depending on the pathway followed. A combination of PMB and CWL was most effective, while IMF externalizes impacts to countries exporting to China. Modestly increasing feed or food imports in a selective manner could ease the pressure on natural resources. Our modeling framework allows us to analyze the effects of changes in food production consumption systems in an integrated manner, and the results can be linked to the eight SDGs. Despite formidable technological, social, educational, and structural barriers that need to be overcome, our study indicates that the ambitious targets of China's new agricultural and environmental strategy appear to be achievable. |
Similar Articles
| ID | Score | Article |
|---|---|---|
7982
|
Tong, BX; Zhang, L; Hou, Y; Oenema, O; Long, WT; Velthof, G; Ma, WQ; Zhang, FS Lower pork consumption and technological change in feed production can reduce the pork supply chain environmental footprint in China(2023)Nature Food, 4, 1 | |
| 23019
|
Ogunmoroti, A; Liu, M; Li, MY; Liu, W Unraveling the environmental impact of current and future food waste and its management in Chinese provinces(2022) | |
| 68963
|
van Wesenbeeck, CFA; Keyzer, MA; van Veen, WCM; Qiu, H Can China's overuse of fertilizer be reduced without threatening food security and farm incomes?(2021) | |
| 24109
|
Sandström, V; Kastner, T; Schwarzmueller, F; Kummu, M The potential to increase food system resilience by replacing feed imports with domestic food system byproducts(2024)Environmental Research Letters, 19, 8 | |
| 76207
|
Mapes, BR; Prager, SD; Béné, C; Gonzalez, CE Healthy and sustainable diets from today to 2050-The role of international trade(2022)Plos One, 17, 5 | |
| 69590
|
Zhang, H; Liu, G; Xue, L; Zuo, J; Chen, T; Vuppaladadiyam, A; Duan, HB Anaerobic digestion based waste-to-energy technologies can halve the climate impact of China's fast-growing food waste by 2040(2020) |